What's different about breaking through 3000 points this time?

2024-03-16

It is often said that every time the market returns to 3000 points, it's the same familiar formula and the same familiar taste.

Each time it is claimed that this is the last time it will fall below 3000 points, yet each time it fails the test and breaks below 3000 points again.

But every time it breaks through 3000 points upwards, the situation is quite different.

This time, the return above 3000 points is a multi-faceted resonance, leading to a series of new changes in the market trend.

Although it is a bit premature to talk about the new starting point of a bull market, if one is still extremely pessimistic, it's time to wake up.

It is said that collecting the seven Dragon Balls can summon the Dragon God to make a wish.

So, in the cold winter before the Year of the Dragon, let's take stock and see which seven Dragon Balls have been collected this time when returning to 3000 points.

Firstly, the easing of diplomatic relations.

Top leaders have already gone to the United States for meetings, and the relationship between the two superpowers, China and the United States, has noticeably eased.

We all know that the weakness of the market in the past two years mainly comes from the United States, in conjunction with international capital, which has repeatedly bombarded the entire A-share market.The translation of the provided text into English is as follows:

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Various short-selling tactics have emerged continuously, coupled with some sanctions policies, making the stock market unbearable for the citizens.

For us, they represent evil forces, but for them, they just think it's all necessary action.

Different positions lead to different ways of doing things.

However, as the diplomatic relations between the two countries ease, many issues may be resolved smoothly.

On one hand, it's because we have breakthroughs in technology, and on the other hand, it's because the United States has too many fronts to handle and is somewhat overwhelmed.

Secondly, the changes in the exchange rate market.

The market exchange rate also shows a clear upward trend.

In the past five or six years, the trend of A-shares is closely related to the exchange rate.

Whenever the exchange rate is stable, the stock market is generally doing well.

But if the exchange rate continues to depreciate, the market is likely to be sluggish and experience a decline.Essentially, it is the arbitrage capital that influences the overall trend of the A-share market through the northbound funds.

Or, from a global perspective, the interest rate differential is sufficient to affect the attitude of foreign capital in the A-share market.

When the exchange rate market gradually stabilizes and the RMB shows an upward trend, it may be the ultimate reversal of the exchange rate.

Originally, the northbound funds that were selling, selling, and selling have also started to buy recently.

Third, the end of the interest rate hike cycle.

Another factor that has led to a large amount of blood being drawn from the A-share market is actually U.S. Treasury bonds.

The continuous rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields has led many funds to take shelter and also allocate to U.S. Treasury bonds.

After all, U.S. Treasury bonds with an annualized return close to 5% and almost no risk of blowing up are the hot cakes in the market.

But when the interest rate hike gradually comes to an end and may return to the interest rate cut channel, everything may be reversed.

Rectifying chaos and restoring order may be the best description for the interest rate hike cycle.In fact, everything has its cycles, and the United States cannot indefinitely use high-interest bonds to lock in global capital inflows.

After all, in the end, the United States will have to bear the consequences of currency flooding.

It seems to be a good hand of financial cards, but ultimately, it has little impact on us.

Capital will eventually flow back to a certain extent to the A-share market, after all, A-shares include half of the world's top 500 companies.

Fourth, the implementation of the new dividend regulations.

The implementation of the new dividend regulations is also the basic logic for the emergence of the market.

Stocks that do not pay dividends have no right to cash out from the stock market.

When you are poor, everyone gives you money for development, and when you are rich, you want to leave without any return.

Dividends are something that all listed companies should do.

Because when you finance, the market has given you convenience, and when you can cash out, you want to leave without any responsibility, which is definitely unreasonable.The IPO has already sucked up capital, and there is no way to allow it to do a second round of capital absorption through share reduction.

In the future, if dividends can be normalized and more fresh blood can be injected into the stock market, the market will become healthier.

Fifth, the crackdown on short-selling forces.

For short-selling, there must be zero tolerance.

The market has actually expressed that compared to reckless speculation, short-selling is even more intolerable.

Especially when the National Security Bureau comes out, short-sellers should already be trembling with fear.

Although there is not too much expectation for a market dominated by officials, to some extent, the forces of short-selling will not be so blatant.

What happened on the first day of trading is to borrow shares, and on the second day, to heavily sell their own stocks, this kind of thing is also very difficult to happen again.

Speculation traps people on the mountain top, which is the cost of some speculators.

But if it is deliberately short-sold, leading to a sharp drop in stock prices, it is really unforgivable.For a considerable period in the future, there will be a slight relaxation for stocks that are on the rise, but for those that plummet, the review process will be extremely strict.

At the current juncture, it is indeed a good opportunity to get involved.

Sixth, the investment of real money.

The investment of real money is gradually starting.

But this is multi-dimensional, not a single source of funds.

For example, major shareholders are using cash to increase their holdings in their own company's stocks.

For example, employees of fund companies are purchasing products from their own fund companies.

For example, insurance funds are planning to enter the market.

For example, the national team represented by Central Huijin Investment also enters the market.

A large part of the main capital with money has entered the market, and the fresh blood in the market has suddenly increased.When these funds start circulating in the market, the market begins to undergo a quantitative change.

The first priority driving the market is definitely not policy, but tangible capital.

Seventh, breakthroughs in science and technology.

The last point, which is also the key to the key, is that there has been a breakthrough in the field of science and technology.

Once there is a breakthrough, it represents that the plan to strangle the neck will gradually become ineffective.

In the world pattern, there is a major issue, which is not whether China and the United States will fight, but where the global technology industry chain is.

It is said that if China's technology is to break through, the corresponding products in the United States must at least be more than 50% lower in price.

The imagination space for domestic substitution is huge, but don't forget that many things are not yet mature in domestic products, and try not to step into the pit.

Under the background of technological breakthroughs, it is possible to truly start the market.

Because the market needs less chips, but technological breakthroughs are the king of the king, enough to affect the world pattern.The restoration of market confidence cannot be achieved overnight; it always goes through a process.

Everyone longs for a bull market, but it may still be far away from us.

Focusing on the present, what we can do is to grasp the current market trends without looking too far ahead.

Even if there are favorable factors in all aspects, the height and distance that the index can reach remain unknown.

Good news does not necessarily translate into tangible results.

The performance of the stock market is ultimately written by one listed company after another with their performance.

Expectations are just expectations; they can be speculated upon in advance, but if the final results are not delivered, no matter how good the expectations are, they are in vain.

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