The market is dynamically changing, and within these changes, it actually conveys a great many different signals. These signals need to be captured by us, as they are of great help in judging the future trends and directions.
Without further ado, let's talk about several signals in the current A-share market.
Firstly, the activity level of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE).
The BSE index bottomed out on October 23rd, and on November 21st, it started a historical high volume of transactions in the scale of tens of billions.
After that, the BSE has become a contrarian indicator for the market.
When the BSE goes up, the main board market falls, and when the BSE goes down, the main board market rises.
The reason for such a signal is that capital has regarded the BSE as a refuge.
In a bear market, capital always needs to find a place to go to seek so-called shelter, and the BSE has become this place.Although the trading volume of the Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) reaches a maximum of 30 billion yuan in a single day, which is a drop in the ocean compared to the entire market's volume of 800-1000 billion yuan, it is still a clear indicator that deserves attention.
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It is uncertain whether the BSE will resonate with the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE) in the future.
However, judging from the current seesaw situation, the probability of this happening is extremely low.
For a long time, the BSE will play the role of a sanctuary.
Therefore, as investors judge whether the market can effectively reach the bottom, they also need to pay attention to the trends of the BSE.
Secondly, the transaction amount of A-shares.
The transaction amount of A-shares actually has a lot to say.
Historically, when the index reaches the bottom, the trading volume is always shrinking.
But now, the trading volume of A-shares is not small.
Below 3000 points, transactions of over a trillion have occurred, and transactions of 80-90 billion are a common occurrence.It should be noted that in such a position, the market is not far from the bottom, where there isn't much active capital. Many who were caught at high positions should have already completely laid flat.
This can only indicate that there are undercurrents in the A-share market at present.
It's not just the so-called game between the main forces, but also involves the game between domestic and foreign capital.
If the market does not shrink in volume, there is another interpretation, which is that capital is doing high selling and low buying.
Below 3000 points, it seems to be a large-scale purchase, but in fact, it is selling at high positions and buying at low positions in the rotation of sectors.
This also explains why the market's capital cannot be united and launch an attack upwards.
If the market can shrink in volume during the decline, it is a sign that the floating chips have been cleaned up and the capital is no longer rotating everywhere.
Or, on the basis of continuous volume, if it can effectively and quickly break through the resistance, it also represents that the capital strength is sufficient and can be unilaterally long.
The problem of local volume must be solved, whether it is the disagreement between inside and outside, or there is disagreement within itself.
Third, the release of policy benefits.In the past six months, the favorable policies have never stopped.
From the earliest reduction of stamp duty, to limiting the reduction of major shareholders, and then to the later large-scale increase, all are obvious benefits.
The relationship between benefits and the stock market is actually a process from quantitative change to qualitative change.
Many retail investors hope that a benefit can directly change the market pattern, which is unlikely.
The significant benefits brought by a large opening, and ultimately the low result, have been verified countless times.
Including policy-guided capital entering the market, it is also gradual, and there is no situation that can be achieved overnight.
The layout of capital entry must have a cycle.
Recently, the policy signals released are more to guide state-owned capital to "save the market", or it is the layout of long-term funds.
The layout efficiency of this part of the funds is relatively slow, but once in place, the solidity of the market bottom is very high.
In addition, there is currently no trillion-level aid, all are tens of billions of increases, including some ETF increases, the strength is still relatively small.One can patiently await the release of more significant policies that will bring more financial support.
Fourthly, the regulatory situation of "demon stocks."
There is a point that requires close attention, which is about "demon stocks."
This year, there are particularly many "demon stocks," which are the product of an active market.
In previous years, the speculation on "demon stocks" was relatively strictly regulated.
Usually, when the stock price increases by about one time or continues to rise, there will be a regulatory letter.
However, the speculation on "demon stocks" in the second half of this year has been an attitude of letting it be.
The reason is very simple, the market situation is not optimistic, so giving the market some profit effect, there is no risk warning.
This signal, in fact, is profound.
It does not mean whether to speculate on "demon stocks" or not, but it means that the market is quite tolerant of the activity of funds.Because the current ability to create a profit effect is the top priority.
As for who takes over in the end, whether there is a deliberate setup, and settling accounts after the autumn, this set can still be done.
When the market starts to tighten up again, it means that the market has been laid out and it's time for a style switch.
Fifth, the change in the number of stocks hitting the limit up and down.
The number of stocks hitting the limit up and down is actually an important weathervane.
This signal is worth paying attention to every day.
It's not necessarily that the more stocks hit the limit up, the better the market is.
Recently, it often happens that 50 stocks hit the limit up, but the index falls to pieces.
The number of stocks hitting the limit up and down actually represents the market sentiment. As long as there are still many stocks hitting the limit up, it means there is still hope in the market.
But the real hope is born in despair, and a large number of stocks hitting the limit up may not be a good thing.When the number of stocks hitting the upper limit reaches around 20, and the number of stocks hitting the lower limit is in the tens every day, the market is at the tail end of a downturn. This is because speculative capital dares not to move, indicating that the market is approaching its most desperate moment.
Additionally, there is another signal to pay attention to: the transaction volume of stocks hitting the upper limit. In fact, the larger, the better. It indicates that large capital dares to buy some stocks at high positions, which is a positive signal for bullish operations. However, the frequency of this signal is also very low and relatively rare, indicating that large capital does not have an active offensive consciousness at present.
The sixth point is the evolution of market hotspots. The hotspots of the market are the real key to the trend. Carefully review the recent hotspots of the market, which are actually very chaotic and lack a clear main line. Apart from the speculation on artificial intelligence, which has some continuity, the previous speculation on complete vehicles and smart cars is all in disarray.
Looking back further, the speculation on computing power is already a thing of the past, and some small concepts only have a lifespan of 2-3 days. Most of the time, it is the speculation of demon stocks under various hotspots that has become the main melody.When the market experiences significant hot spots that can be sustained for a period of time, the market trend can be systematically unfolded, and at least the cycle will not be too short.
However, if the market's hot spots cannot be sustained, the market trend will inevitably be intermittent.
Therefore, closely monitoring the hot spots, especially their sustainability, is the top priority at present.
Seventh, the mentality of funds outside the market.
The real market bulls are not the part of the funds that trade in the market every day.
But those big guys who hold the currency and wait and see.
Because only when they dive in and put real money into the stock market, it is the real bull funds.
The funds that are now active in the market are those who want to withdraw after making money, and they are also mainly short, flat and fast funds.
The part of the funds outside the market has not yet shown obvious signs of starting to act.
Because there has been no large-scale bottom-fishing of funds in a certain sector or a certain index, and incremental funds are still waiting and watching.This portion of the funds, mostly profits from the last bull market, is also the smartest money in the market.
However, their actions are not actually low-key; every time they enter the market, they make a significant impact.
At least on the surface, there must be large investment targets appearing and a continuous rise in the market to confirm that this part of the external funds has taken action.
Nowadays, we can only continue to observe the direction of these funds and wait for the continuous rise to appear.
The market changes every day, everything is dynamic, and it is impossible to predict accurately.
People often ask, when will the market get better?
In fact, the market has been on the way to getting better, but you just haven't noticed it.
You should know that even minor illnesses take a certain period to recover, not to mention that this time the illness is not light.
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